The Melt Up is the call that made Steve Sjuggerud’s name at Stansberry Research. This is the dated record of the prediction itself: what he said, when he said it, what the market did, and where the thesis stands seven years on. No victory laps, no ridicule. The numbers, dated and sourced, then stop.
The Prediction
Steve Sjuggerud unveiled the Melt Up thesis at the Stansberry Research annual conference in Las Vegas in 2015. The Stansberry Digest retrospective, published years later, fixes the origin:
“When he walked out on the stage at our annual Stansberry Conference in Las Vegas back in 2015 and said, ‘Welcome to the Melt Up’… I’m quite sure a large portion of the audience thought he had been smoking something and was living in the clouds.”
The thesis, as Sjuggerud told Meb Faber in an April 2017 podcast interview, was a single idea with two halves:
“Interest rates would stay lower than you could imagine for longer than you can imagine. And that would drive asset prices like stocks and house prices higher than anyone can imagine… my current theme is really this idea of a melt-up and I like using the phrase melt-up, the term melt-up because it implies a meltdown may follow.”
The product the thesis was built to sell was True Wealth Systems, Sjuggerud’s data-driven newsletter at Stansberry Research. He formalized the tradeable version in October 2018 by launching a dedicated “Melt Up Portfolio” of stocks inside the newsletter — a portfolio he told subscribers he expected to double or more.
Sjuggerud’s own framing of the risk, published December 11, 2018, as the market sold off:
“I believe stocks still have plenty of upside ahead. We’re not at the start of the Melt Down. And I’ll share the simple reason why in today’s essay… Major stock market crashes always occur during recessions… This tells us we’re safe to stay long until a recession is looming. That’s the warning sign that the Melt Up is over… and the Melt Down is on the way.”
And on February 21, 2020, as stocks hit new highs despite the emerging pandemic, Sjuggerud called the euphoria stage:
“This, my friend, is the Melt Up… The Melt Up is the final push of a major bull market. It’s the time when investors throw caution to the wind and BUY, BUY, BUY!”
The thesis was not a single dated prediction. It was a multi-year framework: rates stay low, asset prices soar in a final euphoric leg, then a Melt Down follows once a recession arrives. The 2019 retrospective question is whether the euphoric leg happened, and whether the Melt Down followed on schedule.
What Happened
The market data tells a clear story, and Sjuggerud’s own year-end report cards from Stansberry Research corroborate it.
2019 was the year the Melt Up thesis looked right. The S&P 500 returned 28.9% for the year, its best performance since 2013, closing at 3,230.78 on December 31, 2019 (ycharts.com, Markets Insider). The Stansberry Research year-end Report Card, published in early 2020, graded the True Wealth Systems Melt Up Portfolio an “A-” with a 29.8% average gain over the prior 12 months, beating the benchmark. Sjuggerud’s flagship True Wealth newsletter carried an average annualized gain of nearly 14% since its 2001 launch.
February 2020 was the euphoric peak the thesis predicted. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 3,386.15 on February 19, 2020 (Wikipedia closing milestones, FRED, CNBC).
March 2020 was the crash. The COVID-19 pandemic drove the S&P 500 down 34% from the February 19 peak to a closing low of 2,237.40 on March 23, 2020 — the shortest bear market in S&P 500 history at 33 days (Reuters, Axios, PBS, LPL Financial).
The V-shaped recovery was the thesis’s second wind. The S&P 500 erased all pandemic losses by August 18, 2020, closing at a new record of 3,389.78. The Stansberry Digest read this as the Melt Up resuming with even more fuel, citing the $6 trillion-plus in Fed stimulus as “more than it had created in the previous 30 years.” By August 18, 2021, the S&P 500 marked a 100% gain from the March 2020 low — the fastest doubling since World War II (Axios).
January 2022 was the top. The S&P 500 hit its cycle closing high of 4,796.56 on January 3, 2022 (Reuters, 1728.org). The Stansberry Research 2021 Report Card, published that month, gave True Wealth Systems a “B” grade with a 17.5% annualized gain over the five-year window, beating the S&P 500’s 15.9%. One Melt Up portfolio position was already up 334% since October 2020.
2022 was the Melt Down the thesis warned about. The Federal Reserve raised rates aggressively to fight inflation. The S&P 500 fell to a closing low of 3,577.03 on October 12, 2022, down 25.4% from the January 3 peak (StatMuse, Reuters). The index closed 2022 at 3,839.50, down 19.6% for the year (ycharts.com). Sjuggerud himself pivoted, releasing a January 2023 presentation titled the “2023 Melt Down Warning” that declared the Melt Up over and the Melt Down “still raging” (GlobeNewswire, Jan 26, 2023).
The market recovered and went on to new highs. The S&P 500 surpassed its prior closing high on January 19, 2024, ending at 4,839.81 (Reuters). It crossed 5,000 on February 9, 2024, 6,000 in November 2024, and 7,000 on April 15, 2026 (Wikipedia closing milestones). The July 17, 2026 close was 7,457.69 (Yahoo Finance, Investing.com).
The Math
Every number carries a date and a source.
| Date | Event | S&P 500 Close | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 (exact date not published) | Sjuggerud unveils “Melt Up” at Stansberry Conference, Las Vegas | ~2,043.94 (Dec 31, 2015 close) | StatMuse; Stansberry Digest retrospective |
| Oct 2018 | Sjuggerud launches dedicated “Melt Up Portfolio” in True Wealth Systems | ~2,711.74 (Oct 31, 2018) | Stansberry Digest “Second Part of Our Annual Review” |
| Dec 31, 2018 | Year-end close after Q4 selloff; Sjuggerud says “not the Melt Down” | 2,506.85 | ycharts.com |
| Aug 2019 | Melt Up Portfolio closed first iteration: 29.8% average 12-month gain | ~2,880 (Aug 30, 2019) | Stansberry Digest Report Card |
| Dec 31, 2019 | Year-end: S&P 500 +28.9% for the year, best since 2013 | 3,230.78 | ycharts.com; Markets Insider |
| Feb 19, 2020 | S&P 500 all-time closing high pre-COVID | 3,386.15 | Wikipedia; FRED; CNBC |
| Mar 23, 2020 | COVID crash closing low; -34% from peak; shortest bear market on record (33 days) | 2,237.40 | Axios; Reuters; PBS |
| Aug 18, 2020 | S&P 500 new record, erasing pandemic losses | 3,389.78 | Wikipedia; PBS |
| Aug 18, 2021 | S&P 500 marks 100% gain from March 2020 low; fastest doubling since WWII | 4,479.71 | Axios |
| Jan 3, 2022 | S&P 500 cycle closing high (the top) | 4,796.56 | Reuters; 1728.org |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2022 bear market closing low; -25.4% from Jan 3 peak | 3,577.03 | StatMuse; Reuters |
| Dec 30, 2022 | Year-end close; -19.6% for 2022 | 3,839.50 | ycharts.com; StatMuse |
| Jan 19, 2024 | S&P 500 surpasses prior closing high | 4,839.81 | Reuters |
| Feb 9, 2024 | S&P 500 crosses 5,000 | 5,000+ | Wikipedia |
| Apr 15, 2026 | S&P 500 crosses 7,000 | 7,022.95 | Wikipedia |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 52-week high (as of Jul 17, 2026) | 7,620.90 | CNBC |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Most recent close at time of writing | 7,457.69 | Yahoo Finance; Investing.com |
The return from Sjuggerud’s 2015 Las Vegas call to the January 3, 2022 peak: the S&P 500 went from ~2,044 to 4,796.56, a gain of roughly 89%. From the call to the July 17, 2026 close of 7,457.69: roughly 265%. From the call to the October 12, 2022 bear market low of 3,577.03: roughly 75%. Even at the Melt Down trough, an investor who bought the S&P 500 at Sjuggerud’s 2015 call was still up 75%. From the October 12, 2018 Melt Up Portfolio launch to the January 3, 2022 peak: the S&P 500 went from ~2,712 to 4,796.56, a gain of roughly 77%.
The True Wealth Systems Melt Up Portfolio’s self-reported performance: 29.8% average gain in its first 12-month iteration (closed August 2019); a second iteration launched October 2018, suffered in the Q4 selloff, then recovered; a third iteration relaunched October 2020 with one position up 334% and another up 113% by early 2021. The five-year annualized gain for True Wealth Systems through the 2021 Report Card was 17.5%, beating the S&P 500’s 15.9% over similar holding periods. These are publisher self-reported figures from Stansberry Research’s own annual Report Cards — unaudited, but internally consistent with the market data. Past performance does not guarantee future results; the True Wealth Systems portfolio returns are historical self-reported figures, not a forecast of what the newsletter will deliver going forward.
The Scoreboard Context
Sjuggerud’s career predates the Melt Up by decades, and Stansberry Research’s own Report Cards list the calls that built his credibility:
- Gold’s resurgence, 2003. Sjuggerud recommended gold when it was out of favor. Gold entered a multi-year bull run. Directional hit, well-timed.
- Housing bottom, 2009-2010. Sjuggerud recommended U.S. real estate and housing-related stocks at the post-crisis bottom. Directional hit, well-timed.
- Dow 30,000, 2013. Sjuggerud called the Dow crossing 30,000 well before it happened (it crossed in November 2020). The call was directionally correct and early, not wrong — it just took seven more years.
- The Melt Up, 2015-2022. The thesis that stocks would see a final euphoric leg before a crash. The euphoric leg happened: the S&P 500 rose 89% from the 2015 call to the January 2022 peak, with two distinct melt-up phases (2019’s +29% year and the 2020-2021 post-COVID V-recovery). The crash happened: the 2022 bear market took the index down 25%. The sequencing — euphoria first, Melt Down after a recession signal — matched the thesis Sjuggerud laid out in December 2018. The magnitude of the crash was smaller than the thesis implied (Sjuggerud warned of 40%+ historical crashes; the 2022 drawdown was 25%).
- The 2023 Melt Down Warning. Sjuggerud pivoted in January 2023 to declare the Melt Up over and a “massive reset” underway. The S&P 500 proceeded to recover and hit new all-time highs by January 2024, then nearly double to 7,457 by July 2026. The Melt Down call, as a timing call for exiting stocks, was early — the market recovered before the reset Sjuggerud described materialized.
The pattern across the ledger: Sjuggerud was directionally right on the big macro calls for two decades. The Melt Up thesis was directionally correct on the euphoric leg and the eventual crash. The timing of the exit side — when to step off — is where the thesis ran into trouble. The 2022 bear market was real but shallow by historical standards, and the market went on to new highs. An investor who followed the Melt Up thesis and rode the euphoric leg made a great deal of money. An investor who followed the Melt Down warning and exited in 2023 missed a 50%+ subsequent rally. The perma-bear prediction cycle documents the denominator problem that every multi-year market call runs into: the one year the call works becomes the marketing, and the years it does not never make the brochure.
What The Record Tells A Reader
The Melt Up happened. That is the first finding. Sjuggerud said in 2015 that stocks would see a final euphoric leg before a crash. They did. The S&P 500 rose 89% from the 2015 call to the January 2022 peak, with two distinct melt-up phases. The True Wealth Systems Melt Up Portfolio, by Stansberry’s own self-reported Report Card figures, beat the benchmark during this window.
The Melt Down also happened. The 2022 bear market took the S&P 500 down 25% from its January 2022 peak. Sjuggerud’s December 2018 framework — “no recession means no Melt Down” — held: the recession signal (the Fed’s aggressive rate-hike cycle and the inflation surge) preceded the drawdown, and Sjuggerud correctly identified the shift in his January 2023 pivot.
What the thesis did not deliver is the magnitude and the exit. Sjuggerud’s historical references were to 40%-plus crashes; the 2022 drawdown was 25%, and the market recovered to new highs within two years. The 2023 Melt Down Warning, as an exit signal, was early. An investor who sold everything in early 2023 missed the rally from 4,000 to 7,457.
Direction right on the euphoric leg, direction right on the crash arriving, magnitude smaller than the framework implied, exit signal early. Six of the thesis’s eight elements — low rates, asset price surge, euphoria phase, recession as the trigger, crash following, and the general sequencing — are visible in the 2015-2022 record. The two elements that missed were the crash magnitude and the permanence of the Melt Down.