James Altucher spent months leading up to the SpaceX IPO telling anyone who would watch a free presentation that the real money was in the company holding a patent that he believed would force Elon Musk to make a deal.

That company is widely believed to be AST SpaceMobile (ASTS).

The stock closed at $68.82 on July 14, down from its May 28 high of $133. The IPO is a month old, and the secondary pick has pulled back alongside the broader SpaceX complex.

The thesis from here is how the direct-to-device patent develops — whether the timeline plays out over months or quarters.

The Patent

Altucher’s argument was built around U.S. Patent No. 9,973,266, which describes a system for satellites to function as cell towers in orbit — beaming a signal directly to an ordinary smartphone without any special hardware, terminal, dish, or adapter.

AST SpaceMobile owns this patent. The company has been testing the technology for years. In 2024, it successfully demonstrated a two-way satellite-to-phone call using standard Samsung devices. In 2025, it received FCC approval to operate its BlueBird satellites in the U.S.

Altucher’s thesis was that Starlink’s network requires a physical terminal to connect, which is a limitation. The leap to direct-to-device removes the terminal and opens the entire addressable market of every person with a smartphone — roughly 6 billion people.

He argued that Musk would need ASTS’s patent to make Starlink truly mobile. The acquirer would eventually pay tens of billions.

The Numbers

ASTS hit $133 on May 28, 2026, during the peak of the SpaceX IPO anticipation, and after the June 12 IPO the stock has traded lower, leaving the company valued at roughly $8 billion at $68.82. The “tens of billions” Altucher framed as the acquisition target sits above the current market cap, which is the gap the thesis is built to close.

The direct-to-device market is not a theory. T-Mobile has partnered with ASTS for its “Coverage Above and Beyond” program, and AT&T and Verizon have signed similar agreements. The technology works even if the revenue is not yet material.

The Timeline in Context

Altucher’s pitch presented the deal as a nearer-term event. The stock market is pricing it on a longer timeline.

SPCX, the primary play, was trading at $137.38 as of July 15, essentially at the $135 IPO price and down for three consecutive days. The Altucher portfolio is under short-term pressure across both picks. The James Altucher SpaceX stocks thesis covers the primary SPCX position; this piece tracks the secondary ASTS pick. The direct-to-device thesis is a three-year proposition, not a three-month one — the patents, FCC approvals, and telecom partnerships are all real, and the path from here runs through whether Musk buys ASTS, builds his own technology, or licenses the patent.

The Thesis Components

Altucher was early on the SpaceX IPO — the company listed at $135, hit $226, and was back at $137 in mid-July, which is normal volatility for the largest IPO in history. The Starlink subscriber base of 10 million growing 50% year over year is real, and the 15,000-satellite authorization is real. The SPCX lockup expiry analysis tracks the next structural date that shapes how the post-IPO trade settles.

The secondary pick thesis — direct-to-device via patent — is a genuine technological insight. The market is pricing it as a longer-term proposition right now rather than an imminent event.

The Frame

A stock that has pulled back from its peak has come down from the hype cycle and is trading closer to fundamental value. The patent is still in force, the technology is still deployed, and the telecom partnerships are still in place.

Altucher’s call was specific: the index fund does not own this company, the patent is a moat, and the eventual acquirer pays a premium for it. That thesis is intact, with the timeline extended from the near-term framing the pitch carried.

For someone searching “ASTS James Altucher pick” today, the thesis is alive, the stock has pulled back from its post-IPO highs, and the real test comes when the direct-to-device revenue starts showing up on the balance sheet.

The patent, the carrier partnerships, and the FCC approvals are the structural inputs. The acquisition question and the revenue trajectory are the variables that decide how the thesis compounds from here.